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'mr' practical investor practical thinking first… skip to content home about us services past articles helpful items members only subscribe here june 2018 july 2018 contact us ← older posts time and price meet at the top. posted on july 21, 2018 by tonych vix pulled back to test its 2-year trendline again, closing beneath its short-term support/resistance at 13.29. the buy signal has been suspended until it rises above that level. the cycles model shows probable strength for the vix through mid-august. ( bloomberg ) after a storm comes the calm…eventually. front-month vix futures closed at 12.12 on tuesday, their lowest finish since before the record explosion in volatility in february, which roiled markets and wiped out several exchange-traded products that let investors bet on market tranquility. vix futures contracts are tied to the cboe volatility index, a gauge of the one-month implied swings for the s&p 500 index that’s often called the vix or wall street’s “fear gauge.” spx consolidates beneath the upper 2-year trendline. spx challenged the upper trendline of the 2-year trading channel for a second week at 2816.00. this final bit of strength also coincides with an important cyclical turn date. this may be one of the longest stock market corrections in history, having ventured 159 days from bottom (february 9) to top (july 18) without making a new high. equities are entering their negative season, so care should be taken to protect what small profits there are in 2018. ( reuters ) – u.s. stock indexes edged higher on friday as technology stocks rose on the back of solid results from microsoft, easing fears of a rising trade spat after president donald trump toughened his stance against china. microsoft rose as much as 3.6 percent to a record high of $108.20 and was the biggest boost to the s&p 500 and the dow industrials. president trump said he was ready to impose tariffs on all $500 billion of imported goods from china, unnerving financial markets in premarket trading. his comments on tariffs followed the united states and china imposing levies on $34 billion worth of each other’s goods earlier this month. ndx consolidates near its cycle top. ndx consolidated at its cycle top resistance at 7470.22, closing beneath it. the cycles model suggests that the next several weeks may bring pain to equities. the period of weak seasonality may be about to begin. ( northmantrader ) the $ndx keeps moving from new highs to new highs driven by a narrow group of stocks. nothing new about that as this trend has been ongoing for some time and headlines of new record prices for such stocks such as $fb, $amzn, $googl, $msft are now a daily occurrence. the untouchables. jeff bezos is worth $140b, no that was so last week, now he’s worth $150b. how do you quantify risk in a market that prices in no risk? while most people are focused on stocks prices one underlying issue that appears to be largely ignored by participants is the unprecedented market capitalization expansion we are witnessing in these few select stocks. the numbers are simply staggering. magic money out of thin air. $fb, $googl, $amzn, $msft and $aapl. these 5 stocks now worth nearly $4.1 trillion. that makes these 5 companies the 4th largest economy of the world if you use gdp as a reference. not bad for less than a million people employed at these 5 companies. high yield bond index declines to critical support. the high yield bond index declined from a 60% retracement high to close above critical support. mut remains on a sell signal beneath the trendline. the sell signal is confirmed beneath intermediate-term support at 189.44. sideways consolidations such as this imply a continuation of the previous trend. ( bloomberg ) junk bonds are much cheaper than they were at the start of the year, but at least one major asset manager says she’s getting out because prices are still too rich. “we generally continue to get out of high yield. we don’t see many opportunities today,” said oksana aronov, head of market strategy for absolute return fixed income at jpmorgan asset management, whose team manages $16 billion in assets. “without sounding alarmist, i am seeing some parallels between where we were going into 2008 just in this chase for yield,” said aronov. ust remains above intermediate-term resistance. the 10-year treasury note index maintained its position above intermediate-term resistance at 119.91 for a fourth week, keeping it on a buy signal. the cycles model may allow an inverted cycle high over the next two weeks. if so, we may see ust rally back toward the head & shoulders neckline near 123.00. the commitment of traders shows the commercial traders remain heavily long while speculators remain heavily short the 10-year treasury futures. ( zerohedge ) having killed the japanese bond market , some are wondering if central bank interference has finally slayed the us treasury market, as its numbness to news suggests a zombie-market-walking. the 10-year treasury yield has moved less than 9 basis points so far in july. after retreating from its may 17th high of 3.1261%, the benchmark yield has hovered between 2.8053% and 2.8950% in july… putting it on course for its smallest monthly range since 1973… . the euro may extend its rally. the euro appears to have emerged out of a master cycle low this week to close above short-term support/resistance at 117.02. the cycles model suggests a possible three week rally that may challenge long-term resistance at 119.85. ( bloomberg ) the euro has been treading water. it is unlikely to find a rescuing hand from the european central bank, whose policy makers meet next week. while analysts expect the shared currency to strengthen as the year progresses, conviction in that view is shaky, with strategists having pared their calls recently. the euro was knocked down after the ecb’s mid-june policy review, when president mario draghi dashed expectations for tightening in early 2019. since then, trade tensions have heightened and core inflation in the euro area has been revised downward, which gives the ecb little incentive to change tack any time soon. eurostoxx consolidates beneath resistance. the eurostoxx consolidated beneath intermediate-term resistance at 3473.05 after a three week retracement from its master cycle low. the cycles model calls for a probable decline beneath the head & shoulders neckline near 3250.00. ( bloomberg ) trading in european stock markets is so boring this summer that a strategy betting on minimal movement in shares is making more money than betting on solid appreciation. a buy-write strategy for european blue chips — which combines long equity exposures with sales of call options amid expectations the index moves will be muted — has earned about 3.6 percent since may 31, compared with a 1.7 percent return for the underlying euro stoxx 50 index. “a write-buy strategy should outperform in a sideways-moving market, as we currently have,” said william hobbs, the head of investment strategy at barclays investment solutions in london. “at the moment yes, betting on limited gains is a winner, but our hunch remains that the current one step forward, one step back trading environment will be resolved as the improving fundamental backdrop for corporates shines through a little more forcefully.” the yen bounces. the yen appears to have reached a master cycle low on thursday and has begun a bounce that may last until mid-august. a likely target may be near 92.50. ( bloomberg ) an increase in japan’s appetite for risk assets overseas is having an outsized impact closer to home — on the traditional safe haven status of the yen. accelerating demand for foreign equities by japanese investors is one factor behind the unexpected slide in the nation’s currency, down more than 5 percent since the end of march. it has helped push the yen close to a year-to-date low against the dollar, undoing its standing as a refuge for traders in an environ

URL analysis for mrpracticalinvestor.com

http://mrpracticalinvestor.com/2017/10/28/vix-gives-a-bullish-signal/
http://mrpracticalinvestor.com/2018/01/01/are-equities-losing-momentum/
http://mrpracticalinvestor.com/2018/07/21/time-and-price-meet-at-the-top/
http://mrpracticalinvestor.com/2018/07/21/time-and-price-meet-at-the-top/#respond
http://mrpracticalinvestor.com/2017/11/18/vix-is-on-a-buy-signal/
http://mrpracticalinvestor.com/2018/01/13/fed-fingers-in-the-vix/
http://mrpracticalinvestor.com/past-articles/
http://mrpracticalinvestor.com/2018/03/17/bank-funding-costs-are-blowing-out-should-we-be-concerned/
http://mrpracticalinvestor.com/2018/02/12/will-the-vix-go-higher/
http://mrpracticalinvestor.com/2018/06/16/abandoned-macys-now-a-homeless-shelter/
http://mrpracticalinvestor.com/2018/05/12/1173/
http://mrpracticalinvestor.com/2017/07/25/weekend-update-july-21-2017/
http://mrpracticalinvestor.com/2018/03/10/stocks-move-higher-on-thin-liquidity/
http://mrpracticalinvestor.com/2018/06/02/a-new-stock-rating-has-emerged-hodl/
http://mrpracticalinvestor.com/2017/07/10/the-yen-extends-its-decline-weekend-update-july-7-2017/

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